A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
