Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Fall 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The typical figure of per-day murders monthly in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh administrative statistics. However, security experts have warned that murder numbers could fail to point to better countrywide security.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September of last year. This information was shared by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen during these months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that the previous month the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to confront the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x greater than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has attributed her public safety approach for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Enhanced cooperation between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts urged caution that relying on murder data to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is especially true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be excellent information if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer useful for assessing the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was additionally concerning because it might obscure days when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day average makes spikes of violence invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, per government data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

Yet despite these actions, Mexico is still plagued by high bloodshed, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the past 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to express their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to build a story of security. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst said.